Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 36
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez
Sample3062.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 41.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.3% Market 48.8% Gap +6.9pp
BetMGM 105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
44 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
77
Hard-hit%43.8%
75
xBA0.325
57
xSLG0.506
52
xwOBA0.307
54
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed69.3
45
K%24.9%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · LF
66
Arm Strength92.5 · LF
44
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
24
Range Runs-2.2 · LF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · LF
64
Sprint Speed27.1 · LF
41
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
19
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)