Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample3896.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.8
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 17.8% Market 15.2% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F 78.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 76.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.9% Market 73.6% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
62
Barrel%8.4%
84
Bat speed73.9
93
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%44.7%
70
K%24.5%
35
xBA0.399
95
xSLG0.757
96
xwOBA0.399
97
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
17
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
45
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.413 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.393
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)