Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-07-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-11

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 34
SUSPENDED · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs NYMFreddy Peralta
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.0
F 14.9
V 16.3
Model 17.8% Market 15.2% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.8% Market 75.9% Gap +10.7pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%47.0%
82
xBA0.386
94
xSLG0.740
96
xwOBA0.390
98
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed74.4
96
K%24.4%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
43
Range Runs-0.2 · 1B
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
13
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
61
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.428
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.393
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)