Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample4134.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 12.1
V 13.6
Model 18.7% Market 15.2% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 77.0% Gap +14.6pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.8% Market -- Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85
Exit velocity89.4
69
Hard-hit%44.0%
77
xBA0.364
90
xSLG0.693
94
xwOBA0.374
97
BB%10.9%
77 +21 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
97
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs1.7 · 1B
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.2 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
4
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
63
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.411
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.393
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)