Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.0
V 11.5
Model 17.0% Market 15.2% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.0% Market 77.0% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -335 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%44.0%
76
xBA0.364
90
xSLG0.693
94
xwOBA0.374
97
BB%10.9%
77 +21 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
97
K%25.1%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.9 · 1B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.2 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
5
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
64
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.411
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.393
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)