Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample6517.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
Model 18.6% Market 14.7% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 38.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.5% Market 61.2% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.6% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel -165 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
56
Exit velocity88.6
50
Hard-hit%37.3%
37
xBA0.351
76
xSLG0.588
72
xwOBA0.291
32 -15 vs proj
BB%4.0%
8
Bat speed67.8
25
K%27.8%
23 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
19
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.2 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
43
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions59.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)