Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-05-31 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-31

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs WSHZack Littell
Sample6525.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 20.7% Market 14.2% Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
51
Exit velocity88.2
47
Hard-hit%37.4%
39
xBA0.341
67
xSLG0.565
65
xwOBA0.286
29 -20 vs proj
BB%3.7%
8
Bat speed68.0
27
K%26.9%
26
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherZack Littell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)