Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
OUT · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 14.6
V 13.4
Model 17.4% Market 14.2% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.2% Market 76.2% Gap +10.7pp
BetMGM -320 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
49
Exit velocity88.2
50
Hard-hit%36.6%
36
xBA0.346
76
xSLG0.568
68
xwOBA0.285
27
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed68.0
27
K%27.0%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
21
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)