Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
Projected · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CINBrady Singer
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 13.8
Model 20.3% Market 14.2% Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.5% Market 77.5% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -345 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
55
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%36.6%
41
xBA0.346
78
xSLG0.568
71
xwOBA0.285
29
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed68.0
29
K%27.0%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)