Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
Projected · 4 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 10.4
Model 16.9% Market 14.7% Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.8% Market 77.8% Gap +15.4pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
54
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%36.6%
41
xBA0.346
78
xSLG0.568
72
xwOBA0.285
29
BB%3.6%
6
Bat speed68.0
29
K%27.0%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
24
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.2 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)