Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-19

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs TORDylan Cease
Sample4276.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 17.9
V 20.1
Model 20.9% Market 29.3% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.9%
97
Exit velocity94.1
97
Hard-hit%57.0%
98
xBA0.421
98
xSLG0.950
99
xwOBA0.431
99
BB%17.0%
97
Bat speed73.7
94
K%28.9%
17 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · RF
84
Arm Strength95.1 · RF
71
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
19
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · RF
45
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
6
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
37
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.9%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
88
Correct Decisions72.0%
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
93

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.378 to 0.483
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherDylan Cease
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)