Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample4297.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.5
F 17.2
V 13.1
Model 20.1% Market 30.6% Gap +8.1pp
DraftKings 215 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.1% Market 57.6% Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.0% Market -- Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.3%
98
Exit velocity94.2
98
Hard-hit%56.2%
98
xBA0.417
99
xSLG0.949
100
xwOBA0.424
100
BB%16.0%
96
Bat speed73.9
95
K%29.6%
14 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
61
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
73
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
43
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
38
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
9
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 10.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)