Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-26

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs KCBailey Falter
Sample4301.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.7
F 17.9
V 13.6
Model 21.5% Market 30.6% Gap +6.7pp
DraftKings 215 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 76.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.1% Market 81.1% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.1%
98
Exit velocity94.3
98
Hard-hit%56.5%
98
xBA0.419
99
xSLG0.945
100
xwOBA0.423
100
BB%15.8%
96
Bat speed74.0
95
K%29.6%
15 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · RF
57
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-0.8 · RF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
41
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
9
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 12.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherBailey Falter
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)