Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-30

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs ATHJ.t. Ginn
Sample4311.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.4% Market 29.3% Gap +5.6pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 82.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 80.0% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel -495 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.1%
98
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%58.4%
99
xBA0.420
99
xSLG0.940
100
xwOBA0.424
100
BB%16.0%
96
Bat speed74.0
95
K%28.9%
18 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
78
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.2 · RF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
38
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
9
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.2%
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4%
81
Correct Decisions69.6%
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.419
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherJ.t. Ginn
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)