Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo
Sample4319.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.1% Market 30.6% Gap +7.1pp
DraftKings 215 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 76.8
F 84.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 83.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 76.8% Market 81.1% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.9%
96
Barrel%11.9%
97
Bat speed74.1
95
Exit velocity94.4
98
Hard-hit%58.2%
99
K%28.5%
19 -15 vs proj
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.904
99
xwOBA0.415
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
80
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.5 · RF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · RF
35
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
10
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.419 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.378 to 0.483
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherJoey Cantillo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)