Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-06-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-18

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter
Projected · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs CWSSean Burke
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 23.3% Market 29.3% Gap +3.7pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.9%
99
Exit velocity94.4
98
Hard-hit%58.2%
99
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.904
100
xwOBA0.415
99
BB%15.9%
97
Bat speed74.1
95
K%28.5%
18 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
79
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
73
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
9
Range Runs-1.6 · RF
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · RF
32
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
5
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.5%
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)