Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IL10 · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.1
F 16.6
V 19.9
Model 23.4% Market 29.3% Gap +3.6pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 83.7% Gap +14.5pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.9%
99
Exit velocity94.4
99
Hard-hit%58.2%
99
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.904
100
xwOBA0.415
99
BB%15.9%
98
Bat speed74.1
95
K%28.5%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
78
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
68
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
10
Range Runs-1.6 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · RF
33
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
7
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
31
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.5%
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.378 to 0.483
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)