Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 18.1
Model 20.4% Market 29.3% Gap +6.7pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 83.7% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.9%
99
Exit velocity94.4
99
Hard-hit%58.2%
99
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.904
100
xwOBA0.415
99
BB%15.9%
98
Bat speed74.1
95
K%28.5%
20 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
73
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
69
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-1.7 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · RF
36
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
6
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.5%
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.378 to 0.483
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherYoshinobu Yamamoto
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)