Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample7602.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 19.0% Market 19.1% Gap -0.8pp
DraftKings 405 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 46.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.1% Market 46.2% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market -- Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel -185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
36 -42 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
71
Hard-hit%43.3%
64 -19 vs proj
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.513
50
xwOBA0.307
45 -30 vs proj
BB%11.9%
78 +40 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%22.9%
44 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
53
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.1 · 3B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 3B
21
Sprint Speed24.3 · 3B
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions52.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.019
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)