Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-08

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CINAndrew Abbott
Sample7649.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 19.1% Market 19.1% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 405 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
51 -27 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%42.9%
64 -19 vs proj
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.533
56
xwOBA0.306
46 -27 vs proj
BB%10.5%
71 +32 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
82
K%23.2%
41 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
47
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
92
Range Runs2.3 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · 3B
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5%
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2%
70
Correct Decisions68.3%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.312
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.022
Opposing pitcherAndrew Abbott
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)