Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs BALShane Baz
Sample7662.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 20.7% Market 18.0% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.9
F 78.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 82.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 65.9% Market 77.9% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.2
F 22.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.2% Market -- Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
54 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
65
Hard-hit%42.3%
62 -22 vs proj
xBA0.299
26
xSLG0.516
51
xwOBA0.300
41 -34 vs proj
BB%10.0%
66 +26 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
81
K%22.5%
46 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
47
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
92
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · 3B
9
Sprint Speed24.6 · 3B
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5%
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2%
70
Correct Decisions68.3%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.312
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.018
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)