Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample7748.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
Model 18.4% Market 18.4% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.4% Market 81.5% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -440 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
75
Exit velocity89.9
72
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.306
32
xSLG0.558
65
xwOBA0.316
60
BB%11.7%
82
Bat speed72.8
87
K%22.6%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
60
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 3B
94
Range Runs4.1 · 3B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 3B
6
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
68
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)