Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample7760.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 14.7
Model 17.6% Market 18.4% Gap -1.5pp
DraftKings 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.6% Market 79.8% Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.4% Market -- Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
76
Exit velocity89.9
72
Hard-hit%43.6%
68 -16 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.563
67
xwOBA0.319
63
BB%11.5%
81 +41 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%22.4%
49 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
59
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 3B
94
Range Runs4.5 · 3B
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 3B
6
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
68
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)