Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample7764.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 14.5
V 15.1
Model 19.6% Market 18.0% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.0
F 67.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 80.1% Market 81.1% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM -430 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity90.0
73
Hard-hit%43.8%
71
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.562
68
xwOBA0.321
64
BB%11.2%
78 +37 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%22.2%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
59
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs4.7 · 3B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · 3B
5
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
68
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)