Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-30

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample7919.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 14.7
Model 18.9% Market 18.4% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.4% Market 79.4% Gap +15.3pp
BetMGM -385 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.2% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity90.2
79
Hard-hit%44.9%
79
xBA0.327
59
xSLG0.563
70
xwOBA0.330
77
BB%11.2%
80 +38 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
88
K%21.6%
56
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
52
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs5.1 · 3B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · 3B
3
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6%
65
Correct Decisions69.0%
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)