Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CINBrady Singer
Sample7923.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 14.5
Model 20.1% Market 18.0% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.3% Market 81.3% Gap +15.9pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.0% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
69
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%45.0%
79
xBA0.327
59
xSLG0.562
70
xwOBA0.329
77
BB%11.3%
81 +39 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%21.7%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
52
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs4.5 · 3B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.7 · 3B
3
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
65
Correct Decisions68.9%
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)