Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Manny Machado

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs NYYMax Fried
Sample7930.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.6
F 12.0
V 12.0
Model 16.8% Market 19.6% Gap -2.8pp
BetMGM 410 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.2% Market 82.1% Gap +17.1pp
BetMGM -460 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%44.9%
80
xBA0.331
65
xSLG0.564
71
xwOBA0.332
79
BB%11.3%
82 +39 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 3B
53
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs5.0 · 3B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · 3B
3
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5%
68
Correct Decisions69.0%
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.313 to 0.382
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)