Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

J.t. Realmuto

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 8 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample5401.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.5% Market 74.7% Gap +14.3pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.3% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
28 -38 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%41.3%
64
xBA0.338
72
xSLG0.515
56
xwOBA0.324
73
BB%7.8%
41 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
76
K%20.2%
65 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
18
Catcher Throwing2.3 · C
88
Framing Runs0.6 · C
64
Pop Time1.9 · C
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · C
65
Sprint Speed28.2 · C
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
69
Correct Decisions67.3%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.342 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.313
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.369
RegressionPositive · 0.014
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)