Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample6188.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 26.0
V 19.5
Model 20.7% Market 16.3% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 43.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.5% Market 43.2% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 71.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.3% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel -195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
41
Exit velocity85.9
23
Hard-hit%32.4%
19 -55 vs proj
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.552
63
xwOBA0.281
23 -50 vs proj
BB%8.3%
43 -22 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
54
K%28.7%
19 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
59 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · DH
46
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 37.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.100
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)