Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample6351.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.7
F 18.0
V 15.2
Model 22.0% Market 16.4% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F 72.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 64.9% Market 82.3% Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.5
F 31.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 29.5% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%40.4%
57 -23 vs proj
xBA0.328
58
xSLG0.541
61
xwOBA0.296
39 -37 vs proj
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed70.9
70
K%28.6%
20 -35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
63 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)