Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs MIAEury Pérez
Sample6358.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.2
F 22.3
V 15.2
Model 21.0% Market 16.4% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.3% Market 82.3% Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39
Exit velocity87.6
44
Hard-hit%41.1%
60
xBA0.330
59
xSLG0.540
61
xwOBA0.296
39
BB%9.9%
67
Bat speed70.9
71
K%28.8%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
64 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherEury Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)