Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample6451.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 12.9
V 13.6
Model 19.2% Market 15.5% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.1% Market 80.2% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
68
Exit velocity87.7
47
Hard-hit%42.2%
67
xBA0.329
62
xSLG0.556
67
xwOBA0.305
50 -31 vs proj
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed70.9
70
K%27.5%
25 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
62 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · DH
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
93
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)