Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample6475.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 14.1
V 13.2
Model 20.8% Market 16.4% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.1% Market 82.3% Gap +16.3pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.1% Market -- Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%42.2%
68
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.566
70
xwOBA0.316
65 -18 vs proj
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed71.1
72
K%26.0%
33 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · DH
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
31
Correct Decisions68.5%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)