Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs CINAndrew Abbott
Sample6506.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 12.2
Model 17.6% Market 15.5% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.1% Market 80.2% Gap +16.4pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
70
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%42.9%
72
xBA0.336
71
xSLG0.565
70
xwOBA0.314
63 -20 vs proj
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed71.2
74
K%26.4%
31 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · DH
79
Bolts2.0 · DH
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed27.4 · DH
49
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
36
Correct Decisions68.7%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherAndrew Abbott
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)