Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-10-24 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-24

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample6550.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 13.0
Model 18.1% Market 16.4% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.2% Market 82.3% Gap +16.1pp
BetMGM -465 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 6.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 6.1% Market -- Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel 3000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
68
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%43.2%
74
xBA0.340
74
xSLG0.565
71
xwOBA0.314
63 -21 vs proj
BB%9.4%
62
Bat speed71.2
73
K%26.8%
29 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · DH
79
Bolts3.0 · DH
31
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
95
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10922 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 889 props Brier 0.170 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)