Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Xander Bogaerts

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample6666.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F 61.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 60.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 70.9% Market 71.8% Gap +9.5pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
45
Exit velocity88.5
54
Hard-hit%40.5%
57 +19 vs proj
xBA0.309
34
xSLG0.474
37
xwOBA0.315
58
BB%11.1%
76 +45 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%19.3%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
62
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
45
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.6 · SS
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · SS
48
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
74
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)