Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Xander Bogaerts

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCNoah Cameron
Sample6673.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.5% Market 75.0% Gap +10.4pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.1% Market -- Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
44
Exit velocity88.5
54
Hard-hit%40.9%
59 +21 vs proj
xBA0.307
33
xSLG0.474
37
xwOBA0.315
59
BB%10.9%
76 +44 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%19.0%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
63
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
44
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.6 · SS
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · SS
55
SB Success Rate90.0% · SS
79
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
40
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherNoah Cameron
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)