Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-26

Xander Bogaerts

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample6697.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.0% Market 72.2% Gap +13.0pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.2% Market -- Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
43
Exit velocity88.5
54
Hard-hit%40.3%
56 +20 vs proj
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.471
37
xwOBA0.317
61
BB%11.6%
82 +49 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%18.6%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
62
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
42
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.4 · SS
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · SS
52
SB Success Rate91.7% · SS
83
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
40
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)