Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-25

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Sample6266.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 13.2
Model 18.9% Market 18.9% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 410 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.5% Market 81.5% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -440 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.0% Market -- Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
65
Exit velocity92.0
91
Hard-hit%48.7%
88 +16 vs proj
xBA0.322
53
xSLG0.555
65
xwOBA0.346
83
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed71.2
74
K%17.1%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
99
Arm Strength83.5 · SS
27
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs1.2 · SS
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · SS
22
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherYoshinobu Yamamoto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)