Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Max Kepler

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 11.7
Model 18.6% Market 14.4% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 570 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 40.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 39.9% Market 39.1% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
60
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%42.0%
66
xBA0.272
10
xSLG0.453
30
xwOBA0.274
21 -41 vs proj
BB%8.7%
53
Bat speed69.3
45
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
21
Arm Strength87.8 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
48
Range Runs0.6 · LF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · LF
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions59.2%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.354
RegressionPositive · 0.000
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)