Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-06-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Josh Bell

MIN · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample4716.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 18.7% Market 14.8% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.0% Market 71.8% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
68
Exit velocity89.3
59
Hard-hit%40.0%
49
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.539
58
xwOBA0.299
39 -31 vs proj
BB%7.5%
35 -26 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%23.4%
40 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · DH
7
Sprint Speed25.5 · DH
11
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4%
93
Correct Decisions67.4%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)