Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Josh Bell

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIN vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample4997.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 11.2
Model 17.0% Market 14.8% Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.0% Market 75.3% Gap +14.5pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.3% Market -- Gap +7.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%40.6%
59
xBA0.324
56
xSLG0.556
68
xwOBA0.328
75
BB%8.1%
47
Bat speed70.4
63
K%20.3%
64
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · DH
3
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
17
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.9%
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.9%
92
Correct Decisions68.9%
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)