Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-05

Mookie Betts

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs SDJp Sears
Sample6300.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.2
F 16.6
V 15.2
Model 21.1% Market 15.9% Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 505 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 83.3% Gap +14.2pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.0% Market -- Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
74 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
80
Hard-hit%37.7%
43
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.512
51
xwOBA0.338
76
BB%9.5%
61
Bat speed67.4
23
K%11.5%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
86
Arm Strength87.7 · SS
63
Outs Above Avg4.0 · SS
90
Range Runs3.9 · SS
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · SS
27
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
27
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.403
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherJp Sears
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)