Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Mookie Betts

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample6422.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 15.8
Model 21.6% Market 15.4% Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.0% Market 82.0% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -455 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity90.5
82
Hard-hit%38.0%
47
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.488
44
xwOBA0.327
73 -15 vs proj
BB%8.6%
52 -16 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
24
K%11.1%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
81
Arm Strength87.7 · SS
54
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.2 · SS
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · SS
31
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
27
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.249
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.403
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)