Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Victor Caratini

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs ATLTyler Mahle
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.8% Market 68.8% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM -220 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
50
Exit velocity89.4
68
Hard-hit%39.2%
52
xBA0.312
40
xSLG0.504
51
xwOBA0.321
68
BB%9.2%
58 +25 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
45
K%20.9%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
77
Catcher Throwing-3.3 · C
3
Framing Runs2.7 · C
75
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
68
Pop Time2.0 · C
2
Range Runs0.2 · C
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.5 · C
2
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.6%
13
Correct Decisions64.4%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.352
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)