Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs NYYCam Schlittler
Sample4270.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 14.7
Model 19.2% Market 17.5% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.8% Market 78.7% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -370 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
81
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%46.4%
81
xBA0.362
85
xSLG0.622
83
xwOBA0.328
70
BB%9.5%
61 +37 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
63
K%28.1%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
58
Arm Strength90.6 · LF
27
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
49
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions67.2%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherCam Schlittler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)