Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample4431.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.1
F 12.0
V 14.8
Model 18.6% Market 17.5% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +16.9pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
83
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%45.1%
80
xBA0.371
93
xSLG0.625
85
xwOBA0.333
79
BB%8.7%
54 +27 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
K%27.2%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.3 · LF
22
Arm Strength91.9 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · LF
3
Range Runs-4.9 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · LF
42
Bolts1.0 · LF
12
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
75
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8%
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.035
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)