Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs COLJose Quintana
Sample4725.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 19.6% Market 21.5% Gap -1.9pp
BetMGM 365 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 70.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.7% Market 80.2% Gap -3.7pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
87
Exit velocity91.2
85
Hard-hit%46.1%
76
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.607
76
xwOBA0.377
89
BB%7.8%
37 -28 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%14.2%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
80
Arm Strength85.8 · 2B
57
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
81
Range Runs2.1 · 2B
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
44
Sprint Speed26.2 · 2B
24
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 80.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.3%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.231
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.023
Opposing pitcherJose Quintana
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)