Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample4913.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 12.1
Model 18.5% Market 21.1% Gap -2.6pp
BetMGM 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.9% Market 83.5% Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 33.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.1% Market -- Gap +7.7pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.3%
87
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%45.1%
76
xBA0.347
77
xSLG0.586
73
xwOBA0.361
89
BB%7.1%
32 -36 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
91
K%14.3%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
71
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
83
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
84
Range Runs2.2 · 2B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
56
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
Sprint Speed26.5 · 2B
27
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions65.0%
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.430
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.015
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)