Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.7
Model 20.2% Market 20.5% Gap -1.1pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.4% Market 83.5% Gap +16.7pp
BetMGM -505 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85
Exit velocity90.0
77
Hard-hit%42.8%
71
xBA0.334
69
xSLG0.563
70
xwOBA0.351
91
BB%7.9%
43
Bat speed73.4
91
K%14.7%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
63
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
81
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
80
Range Runs1.6 · 2B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
53
Bolts1.0 · 2B
12
Sprint Speed26.6 · 2B
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
40
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.430
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)